Wave counting analysis:
On Wednesday, May 1, the trading ended for the EUR / USD with a decrease of 25 b.p. Also during the day, the instrument increased by 50 bp, but by the end of the day, it began to fall. The MACD indicator, on the other hand, turned down, which may be a signal that the pair is ready to resume the construction of the downward wave 3. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline from its current positions with targets located at around 11 and 10 figures. Meanwhile, the news background yesterday could support both the euro and the dollar. Nevertheless, the markets decided that the lack of frank negative in the Fed’s rhetoric is a good reason for buying the dollar. Thus, wave 3 can take on a very long form and a complex internal wave structure.
1.1097 – 161.8%
1.1045 – 200.0% Fibonacci
1.1324 – 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The pair continues to build the downward section of the trend. The correctional wave is presumably completed. The current wave counting implies the continuation of the decline of the pair with the closest targets 1.1097 and 1.1045, which equates to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. The MACD turned down, and thus, I recommend selling the pair first in small lots with designated goals.